Coral reefs are highly important ecosystems providing habitat for biodiverse marine life and numerous benefits for humans. However they face immense risks from climate change. To date, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate models have aided global discussions on possible policy responses to adapt to change, but tailored climate projections at a useful scale for environmental managers are often prohibitively expensive to produce. Our research addresses this problem by presenting a novel type of collaborative, participatory research that integrates 1) site specific climate metrics from the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble (CESM2-LE), 2) ecosystem response models to determine Degree Heating Months and coral bleaching impacts, and 3) collaborative social science data from environmental manager engagement to see how managers in one of the most visited marine sanctuaries in the world are enacting adaptive governance, stewarding reefs through climate impacts of the future. Our research is valuable to decision-makers seeking opportunities for innovative policy responses to climate impacts focused on experimentation and dialogue.

Rip currents, fast offshore-directed fl ows, are the leading cause of death and rescues on surf beaches worldwide. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) seeks to minimize this threat by providing rip-current hazard likelihood forecasts based on environmental conditions from the Nearshore Wave Prediction System. Rip currents come in several types, including bathymetric rip currents that form when waves break on sandbars interspersed with channels and transient rip currents that form when there are breaking waves coming from multiple directions. The NOAA model was developed and tested in an area where bathymetric rip currents may be the most prevalent type of rip current. Therefore, model performance in regions where other types of rip currents (e.g., transient rip currents) may be more ubiquitous remains unknown. To investigate the efficacy fi cacy of the NOAA model guidance in the context of different rip-current types, we compared modeled rip-current probabilities with physical-based parameterizations of bathymetric and transient rip-current speeds. We also compared these probabilities to lifeguard observations of bathymetric and transient rip currents from Salt Creek Beach, California, in summer and fall 2021. We found that the NOAA model skillfully predicts a wide range of hazardous parameterized bathymetric speeds but generally underpredicts hazardous transient rip-current speeds and the hazardous rip currents observed at Salt Creek Beach. Our results demonstrate how wave parameters, including directional spread, may serve as environmental indicators of rip-current hazard. By evaluating factors that influence fl uence the skill of modeled rip-current predictions, we strive toward improved rip-current hazard forecasting. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The purpose of this study is to evaluate how well the NOAA rip-current hazard model predicts different rip-current types. Accurate forecasting of rip currents is important because rip currents are the leading cause of death and rescues at surf beaches worldwide. By comparing the performance of the NOAA model to parameterized rip-current speed and lifeguard observations of rip-current strength, we highlighted the model's decreased ability to predict hazardous transient rip currents compared to hazardous bathymetric rip currents. Because bathymetric and transient rip currents are driven by different environmental conditions, an improved hazard model must be sensitive to these different conditions to predict a greater range of hazardous rip currents.

Extreme precipitation during Hurricane Florence, which made landfall in North Carolina in September 2018, led to breaches of hog waste lagoons, coal ash pits, and wastewater facilities. In the weeks following the storm, freshwater discharge carried pollutants, sediment, organic matter, and debris to the coastal ocean, contributing to beach closures, algae blooms, hypoxia, and other ecosystem impacts. Here, the ocean pathways of land-sourced contaminants following Hurricane Florence are investigated using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with a river point source with fixed water properties from a hydrologic model (WRF-Hydro) of the Cape Fear River Basin, North Carolina's largest watershed. Patterns of contaminant transport in the coastal ocean are quantified with a finite duration tracer release based on observed flooding of agricultural and industrial facilities. A suite of synthetic events also was simulated to investigate the sensitivity of the river plume transport pathways to river discharge and wind direction. The simulated Hurricane Florence discharge event led to westward (downcoast) transport of contaminants in a coastal current, along with intermittent storage and release of material in an offshore (bulge) or eastward (upcoast) region near the river mouth, modulated by alternating upwelling and downwelling winds. The river plume patterns led to a delayed onset and long duration of contaminants affecting beaches 100 km to the west, days to weeks after the storm. Maps of the onset and duration of hypothetical water quality hazards for a range of weather conditions may provide guidance to managers on the timing of swimming/shellfishing advisories and water quality sampling.

Surfzone eddies enhance the dispersion and transport of contaminants, bacteria, and larvae across the nearshore, altering coastal water quality and ecosystem health. During directionally spread wave conditions, vertical vortices (horizontal eddies) are injected near the ends of breaking crests. Energy associated with these eddies may be transferred to larger-scale, low-frequency rotational motions through an inverse energy cascade, consistent with two-dimensional turbulence. However, our understanding of the relationships between the wave conditions and the dynamics and energetics of low-frequency surfzone eddies are largely based on numerical modeling. Here, we test these relationships with remotely sensed and in situ observations from large-scale directional wave basin experiments with varying wave conditions over alongshore-uniform barred bathymetry. Surface velocities derived with particle image velocimetry were employed to assess the spatial scales of low-frequency surfzone eddies and compute structure functions with alongshore velocities. Second-order structure functions for directionally spread waves (σ_θ ≥ 10°) are consistent with energy flux to larger or smaller length scales, while normally incident, unidirectional waves do not display this behavior. Third-order structure functions suggest that the surfzone flows exhibit a bidirectional energy cascade — a direct cascade to smaller and inverse cascade to larger length scales — during large directional spreads waves (σ_θ ≥ 18°). However, there is not decisive evidence of an inverse energy cascade for moderate directional spreads (σ_θ ≥ 10°). Energy flux varies by cross-shore location and increases with increasing directional spread and wave height. Eddy decorrelation length scales weakly depend on wave directional spread. These findings advance our understanding of the dynamics linking wave breaking to large-scale rotational motions that enhance mixing and lead to rip currents, important conduits for cross-shore material exchange.

Surface gravity wave breaking occurs along coastlines in complex spatial and temporal patterns that significantly impact erosion, scalar transport, and flooding. Numerical models are used to predict wave breaking and associated processes but many lack sufficient evaluation with observations. To fill the need for more nearshore wave measurements, we deployed coherent arrays of small-scale, free-drifting buoys named microSWIFTs. The microSWIFT is a small buoy equipped with a GPS module to measure the buoy's position, horizontal velocities, and an inertial measurement unit (IMU) to directly measure the buoy's rotation rates, accelerations, and heading. Measurements were collected over a 27 d field experiment in October 2021 at the US Army Corps of Engineers Field Research Facility in Duck, NC. The microSWIFTs were deployed as a series of coherent arrays, meaning they all sampled simultaneously with a common time reference, leading to a rich spatial and temporal dataset during each deployment. Measurements spanned offshore significant wave heights ranging from 0.5 to 3 m and peak wave periods ranging from 5 to 15 s over the entire experiment.

The completed dataset consists of 67 deployment files that contain 971 drift tracks that contain all associated data. We use an attitude and heading reference system (AHRS) 9-degrees-of-freedom Kalman filter to rotate the measured accelerations from the reference frame of the buoy to the Earth reference frame. We then use the corrected accelerations to compute the vertical velocity and sea-surface elevation. We give example evaluations of wave spectral energy density estimates from individual microSWIFTs compared with a nearby acoustic wave and current (AWAC) sensor. A zero-crossing algorithm is applied to each buoy time series of sea-surface elevation to extract realizations of measured surface gravity waves, yielding 116 307 wave realizations throughout the experiment. We also compute significant wave height estimates from the aggregate wave realizations and compare these estimates with the nearby AWAC estimates. An example of spatial variability in cross-shore velocity and vertical acceleration is explored. Wave-breaking events, detected by high-intensity vertical acceleration peaks, are explored, and the cross-shore distribution of all breaking events detected in the experiment is shown. A total of 3419 wave-breaking events were detected across the entire experiment. These data are available at https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.hx3ffbgk0 (Rainville et al., 2023) and will be used to investigate nearshore wave kinematics, transport of buoyant particles, and wave-breaking processes.

Short-crested breaking waves that result from directionally spread wave conditions dissipate energy and generate turbulence within the surf zone, altering sediment transport processes, wave runup, and forces on structures. Additionally, vertical vorticity generated near crest ends during breaking, which depends on the gradient in wave height along a crest, may enhance nearshore dispersion of pollutants, nutrients, and larvae. Although directionally spread irregular wave fields are ubiquitous on ocean and large lake coastlines, the dependence of short-crested breaking wave characteristics (including the along-crest length and number of crest ends) on offshore wave conditions is not well established. To assess this relationship, laboratory experiments with alongshore-uniform barred bathymetry were performed in a large-scale directional wave basin. A three-dimensional scanning lidar, trinocular camera stereo processing methods, and in situ measurements were used to study short-crested wave field breaking characteristics in the laboratory, yielding a dataset with dense spatio-temporal coverage relative to prior laboratory or field measurements. Wave height estimates are similar for remotely sensed and in situ observations, except in the outer surf zone where plunging breaking occurred. Directional wave properties estimated with an array of in situ or remotely sensed sea-surface elevation estimates are similar and yield smaller directional spreads than single-point colocated pressure and velocity based in situ estimates when waves are less directionally spread. Using a breaking crest identification procedure combining visible imagery and stereo sea-surface elevation, we find that the average along-crest length of breaking waves decreases and the average number of crest ends increases with increasing directional spread. Relative to observations, a parameterized relationship between directional spread and crest characteristics based on theory for non-breaking, refracting waves generally over-estimates breaking crest lengths and is similar to or underestimates the total number of crest ends observed in the surf zone. The wave-field-dependent breaking-wave characteristics examined in the laboratory with remote sensing techniques can inform future investigations of depth-limited short-crested wave breaking and resulting surfzone eddy processes.

Exchange of material across the nearshore region, extending from the shoreline to a few kilometers offshore, determines the concentrations of pathogens and nutrients near the coast and the transport of larvae, whose cross-shore positions influence dispersal and recruitment. Here, we describe a framework for estimating the relative importance of cross-shore exchange mechanisms, including winds, Stokes drift, rip currents, internal waves, and diurnal heating and cooling. For each mechanism, we define an exchange velocity as a function of environmental conditions. The exchange velocity applies for organisms that keep a particular depth due to swimming or buoyancy. A related exchange diffusivity quantifies horizontal spreading of particles without enough vertical swimming speed or buoyancy to counteract turbulent velocities. This framework provides a way to determinewhich processes are important for cross-shore exchange for a particular study site, time period, and particle behavior.

Off the central California coast near Pt. Sal, a large amplitude internal bore was observed for 20 h over 10 km cross-shore, or 100 m to 10 m water depth (D), and 30 km alongcoast by remote sensing, 39 in situ moorings, ship surveys, and drifters. The bore is associated with steep isotherm displacements representing a significant fraction of D. Observations were used to estimate bore arrival time t_B, thickness h, and bore and non-bore (ambient) temperature difference ΔT, leading to reduced gravity g'. Bore speeds c, estimated from mapped t_B, varied from 0.25 m s^-1 to 0.1 m s^-1 from D = 50 m to D = 10 m. The h varied from 5 to 35 m, generally decreased with D, and varied regionally alongisobath. The bore ΔT varied from 0.75 to 2.15°C. Bore evolution was interpreted from the perspective of a two-layer gravity current. Gravity current speeds U, estimated from the local bore h and g^– compared well to observed bore speeds throughout its cross-shore propagation. Linear internal wave speeds based on various stratification estimates result in larger errors. On average bore thickness h = D/2, with regional variation, suggesting energy saturation. From 50–10 m depths, observed bore speeds compared well to saturated gravity current speeds and energetics that depend only on water depth and shelf-wide mean g'. This suggests that this internal bore is the internal wave analogue to a saturated surfzone surface gravity bore. Alongcoast variations in pre-bore stratification explain variations in bore properties. Near Pt. Sal, bore Doppler shifting by barotropic currents is observed.

Circulation in the nearshore region, which is critical for material transport along the coast and between the surf zone and the inner shelf, includes strong vortical motions. The horizontal length scales and vertical structure associated with vortical motions are not well documented on alongshore-variable beaches. Here, a three-dimensional phase-resolving numerical model, Simulating WAves till SHore (SWASH), is compared with surfzone waves and flows on a barred beach, and is used to investigate surfzone eddies. Model simulations with measured bathymetry reproduce trends in the mean surfzone circulation patterns, including alongshore currents and rip current circulation cells observed for offshore wave heights from 0.5 to 2.0 m and incident wave directions from 0 to 15° relative to shore normal. The length scales of simulated eddies, quantified using the alongshore wavenumber spectra of vertical vorticity, suggest that increasing wave directional spread intensifies small-scale eddies (O(10) m). Simulations with bathymetric variability ranging from alongshore uniform to highly alongshore variable indicate that large-scale eddies (O(100) m) may be enhanced by surfzone bathymetric variability, whereas small-scale eddies (O(10) m) are less dependent on bathymetric variability. The simulated vertical dependence of the magnitude and mean length scale (centroid) of the alongshore wavenumber spectra of vertical vorticity and very low-frequency (f ≈ 0.005 Hz) currents is weak in the outer surf zone, and decreases toward the shoreline. The vertical dependence in the simulations may be affected by the vertical structure of turbulence, mean shear, and bottom boundary layer dynamics.

Cross‐shore transport of larvae, pollutants, and sediment between the surf zone and the inner shelf is important for coastal water quality and ecosystems. Rip currents are known to be a dominant pathway for exchange, but the effects of horizontal temperature and salinity gradients are not well understood. Airborne visible and infrared imaging performed on the California coast shows warm and cool plumes driven by rip currents in the surf zone and extending onto the shelf, with temperature differences of approximately 1°C. The airborne imagery and modeled temperatures and tracers indicate that warm plumes exhibit more lateral spreading and transport material in a buoyant near‐surface layer, whereas cool plumes move offshore in a subsurface layer. The average cross‐shore extent of warm plumes at the surface is approximately one surfzone width larger than for cool plumes. Future work may explore the sensitivity of nearshore plumes to density patterns, wave forcing, and bathymetry.

The inner shelf, the transition zone between the surf zone and the mid shelf, is a dynamically complex region with the evolution of circulation and stratification driven by multiple physical processes. Cross-shelf exchange through the inner shelf has important implications for coastal water quality, ecological connectivity, and lateral movement of sediment and heat. The Inner-Shelf Dynamics Experiment (ISDE) was an intensive, coordinated, multi-institution field experiment from Sep.–Oct. 2017, conducted from the mid shelf, through the inner shelf and into the surf zone near Point Sal, CA. Satellite, airborne, shore- and ship-based remote sensing, in-water moorings and ship-based sampling, and numerical ocean circulation models forced by winds, waves and tides were used to investigate the dynamics governing the circulation and transport in the inner shelf and the role of coastline variability on regional circulation dynamics. Here, the following physical processes are highlighted: internal wave dynamics from the mid shelf to the inner shelf; flow separation and eddy shedding off Point Sal; offshore ejection of surfzone waters from rip currents; and wind-driven subtidal circulation dynamics. The extensive dataset from ISDE allows for unprecedented investigations into the role of physical processes in creating spatial heterogeneity, and nonlinear interactions between various inner-shelf physical processes. Overall, the highly spatially and temporally resolved oceanographic measurements and numerical simulations of ISDE provide a central framework for studies exploring this complex and fascinating region of the ocean.

Low‐frequency surf zone eddies disperse material between the shoreline and the continental shelf, and velocity fluctuations with frequencies as low as a few mHz have been observed previously on several beaches. Here spectral estimates of surf zone currents are extended to an order of magnitude lower frequency, resolving an extremely low frequency peak of approximately 0.5 mHz that is observed for a range of beaches and wave conditions. The magnitude of the 0.5‐mHz peak increases with increasing wave energy and with spatial inhomogeneity of bathymetry or currents. The 0.5‐mHz peak may indicate the frequency for which nonlinear energy transfers from higher‐frequency, smaller‐scale motions are balanced by dissipative processes and thus may be the low‐frequency limit of the hypothesized 2‐D cascade of energy from breaking waves to lower frequency motions.

Although rip currents are a major hazard for beachgoers, the relationship between the danger to swimmers and the physical properties of rip current circulation is not well understood. Here, the relationship between statistical model estimates of hazardous rip current likelihood and in situ velocity observations is assessed. The statistical model is part of a forecasting system that is being made operational by the National Weather Service to predict rip current hazard likelihood as a function of wave conditions and water level. The temporal variability of rip current speeds (offshore-directed currents) observed on an energetic sandy beach is correlated with the hindcasted hazard likelihood for a wide range of conditions. High likelihoods and rip current speeds occurred for low water levels, nearly shore-normal wave angles, and moderate or larger wave heights. The relationship between modeled hazard likelihood and the frequency with which rip current speeds exceeded a threshold was assessed for a range of threshold speeds. The frequency of occurrence of high (threshold exceeding) rip current speeds is consistent with the modeled probability of hazard, with a maximum Brier skill score of 0.65 for a threshold speed of 0.23 m s^-1, and skill scores greater than 0.60 for threshold speeds between 0.15 and 0.30 m s^-1. The results suggest that rip current speed may be an effective proxy for hazard level and that speeds greater than ~0.2 m s^-1 may be hazardous to swimmers.

To investigate the dynamics of flows near nonuniform bathymetry, single channels (on average 30 m wide and 1.5 m deep) were dredged across the surf zone at five different times, and the subsequent evolution of currents and morphology was observed for a range of wave and tidal conditions. In addition, circulation was simulated with the numerical modeling system COAWST, initialized with the observed incident waves and channel bathymetry, and with an extended set of wave conditions and channel geometries. The simulated flows are consistent with alongshore flows and rip-current circulation patterns observed in the surf zone. Near the offshore-directed flows that develop in the channel, the dominant terms in modeled momentum balances are wave-breaking accelerations, pressure gradients, advection, and the vortex force. The balances vary spatially, and are sensitive to wave conditions and the channel geometry. The observed and modeled maximum offshore-directed flow speeds are correlated with a parameter based on the alongshore gradient in breaking-wave-driven-setup across the nonuniform bathymetry (a function of wave height and angle, water depths in the channel and on the sandbar, and a breaking threshold) and the breaking-wave-driven alongshore flow speed. The offshore-directed flow speed increases with dissipation on the bar and reaches a maximum (when the surf zone is saturated) set by the vertical scale of the bathymetric variability.

The deep ocean, continental shelf, and surf zone are defined by their unique physical processes and dynamics. The nearshore region from about 50 m water depth to the outer edge of the surf zone (SZ) is known as the inner shelf. This region is characterized by overlapping and interacting surface and bottom boundary layers. At the offshore side of the inner shelf, instabilities from wind-driven currents and fronts create cross-shelf meanders and eddies. In addition, energetic nonlinear internal waves (NLIWs) are ubiquitous on the inner shelf.

To understand and predict the exchange of water properties (heat, gases, sediment, pollutants, biota) across the inner shelf over a range of temporal and spatial scales, the Office of Naval Research Inner Shelf Dynamics Departmental Research Initiative (Inner Shelf DRI) is coordinating field observations (in situ and remote sensing) coupled to numerical modeling efforts on a 50-km section of coast off Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, located in the vicinity of Point Sal. The overall goal is to develop and improve the predictive capability of a range of numerical models to simulate the 3D circulation, density, and surface wave field across the inner shelf associated with a broad array of physical processes and complex bathymetry.